When a dream comes true !

The first match I remember watching is 1992 world cup final and subsequent celebrations by Pakistan team. Ever since then, I am following cricket very closely as most of my generation has done. During this time, Indian team went through ups and downs, found in Sachin Tendulkar, a player that for most of my generation is not just a player but source of inspiration, idol, god really, experienced Dravid's gutsy knocks to save India from hopeless situations time and time again, saw Ganguly transforming India's team and infuse some self -belief and aggression in the Indian team; the period when young shoulders started taking responsibility for the win, Yuvraj-Kaif's sensational partnership to win India a game against England stands as a prime example of this change and then finally the "Now" phase of Indian cricket, with emergence of MSD as captain of India. The whole journey of following cricket has been time consuming but something which gave me and most would agree if I generalize "me" to "us" enormous joy.


2003; we came the closest to winning the world cup. Around 30 of us gathered to watch it together, but what we saw was nerves taking over calm and Indian bowlers loosing the plot in the early stage of the match. We never came back in it. But this time around it was different. Opening spell from Zaheer was crucial; the same bowler who conceded 15 runs in first over in 2003 world cup started brilliantly this time around with 3 maidens in a row and set the tone for India's bowling. The opening spell insured that Srilanka would not go past 300 unless we really bowl badly. Though, magic of Mahela took them close to 300. 275 was a symbolic score. It is right in between 250 and 300; 250 suggests the total you would expect a good team batting sensibly to chase down and 300, a total you would expect only gutsy team full of aggression and self believe could chase down. So it was clear that our batting needed mixture of these two approaches.

After the fall of two openers, stalwarts of Indian cricket, it was mature partnership of Gambhir and Kohli who calmed the nerves and put India in a position from where target of 275 looked within range. Then Dhoni paced the innings excellently and the way he controlled the match was brilliant. He never gave Srilanka any chance of coming back in to it. And finally that killer blow over mid - on to seal the deal! I was at MIT, Boston to watch the match with 50 other Indian students and with that six started celebrations which all of us waited for 20 years of our life. This victory has given a way to vent all our emotions attached with Indian cricket. As a cricket follower, it was a proud moment to see men in blue lift the trophy and carrying Sachin over the shoulders. The statement from Kohli just summarized the contribution of Sachin to Indian cricket. His resume now looks complete. I have never seen Sachin so expressive and happy after the win. That just shows how desperately he wanted this and he played his part during the tournament; 53 against Australia, 85 against Pakistan both were crucial knocks to help India enter the big final. But the revelation was Yuvraj; He just proved most wrong including me.

I have been a great critic of Dhoni; not for his cricket but for his sometimes unnecessary and disrespectful comments about senior players. But still I have to say this; this man has got something in him. He reads the game better than the most. It was a master stroke to bring himself before Yuvraj. He rectified his mistakes during the world cup and saved the best knock for the final moment. I still do not understand why he had to criticize fielders after every match in public? But now is not the time to talk about this. The man has delivered and close to becoming a legend in Indian cricket.

Garry Kirstin transformed Indian team in last 3 years. Such a short time, but in his tenure we reached the heights we never tasted before. Became number one team in test, were consistently in top 3 teams in ODI's. We cannot persuade him to stay but he has done his job and now time has come for him to enjoy his time with his family back home. But he will fly back with memories he can cherish for his life. He will not regret the he became an Indian for a moment after the world cup win.

In the end, it was a perfect end to Sachin's last world cup. Everyone wanted India to do well in world cup but more so for Sachin. All the Indian players made it amply clear that he was the source of inspiration and he is the one for whom they wanted to do it. That really proves the point how inspirational this man has been for millions. This man has achieved everything a cricketer would want to and he has taken cricket to a different level. He has set the standards for batsmans to come in future and hence to become the greatest batsman for any player in future has become a task infinitely difficult. I do not know when Sachin will retire, but now I am sure he has nothing more to achieve. What a legend, master of masters and greatest of greats! Thank you Sachin for giving whatever you have given us; we cannot imagine what our life would have been if you were never there! And we do not even want to imagine!!!!

It was not only Team - India in tears but me also and like me uncountable number Indian cricket fans who were in tears. I thank team India to have given us joy of lifetime, memories we will enjoy for rest of our life and more importantly will inspire new generation to take on cricket seriously and that’s where from we are going to get our new Sachin.

There is nothing really that is coming to my mind now. I am all overwhelmed and probably at midnight here in Boston, its time to go to bed with the end of finest day of my life!

Thanks team India, thanks Sachin and thanks god for making me an Indian!!!!!!

Finally - India in quarter Finals after 8 years !!!!

This is my first attempt to revive the writing on this blog and fortunately there is a lot interesting happening in cricketing world to write about it. Of course with the caveat that writing is lot less easier than playing and that all my comments here are written as a cricketing fan and with due respect to the players.


So, finally India has reached the knock out stage in the tournament. It was expected that India will reach this stage but given its performance in 2007 world cup, some of us were still keeping their fingers crossed. But the long league format in this world cup implies that teams with good performance on an average will go through to the next round. One particular match wouldn’t have much bearing on the end result. As all the top 8 teams (though Bangladesh were higher in ranking than West Indies, I still call west Indies a part of top 8 teams, just because they are better established than Bangladesh) have qualified for knock outs, the purpose of long league format has been served.

Coming to Quarter Finals against Australia, I will speak about few issues only; Raina Vs Yusuf, Ahmadabad, Indian Spinning attack and Australian weak points.

But first take a quick review of Indian performance during the world cup till now; one side of the coin is that we lost only a game against South Africa, that too only by a whisker. Other side of the coin is that we haven't got our bowling right and even our batting lineup has failed to make any contribution in 40-50 overs slot. Against West Indies, once again we were dismissed within 50 overs, after being in a great position till 40th over. On positive side, Sachin and Yuvraj are in great form and Sehwag and Kohli too are going great guns. The worrying fact is that once these 4 batsmen are down there is no one down the list who is performing. Dhoni sadly is busy commenting about the performance of the other players, but when it comes to performing, he is not contributing with batting. Yusuf Pathan has been a major disappointment for the selectors and Indian crowd (not for me as I never had much expectation from him). Again this is discussed in bit detail below. As far as Bowling is concerned, apart from Zaheer Khan, no bowler, I mean specialist bowler has made any impression on the scene. Zaheer has looks fit; he is getting swing and reverse swing both, and is amongst the wicket takers. Ashwin showed enough talent today against West Indies, and I hope he stay in the team. Overall, bowling has looked bit weak though.

Yusuf Vs Raina:

Even while writing up to this point, my mind could not resist writing this part. In my opinion, Indian selectors have got it wrong by choosing Yusuf over Raina. Yusuf is a big hitter, no doubt about it. But does India really need a player who fires once in10 innings and cannot even score responsible 20 runs when needed? He has clearly failed to stay on the pitch, and he has got out not neccessarily hitting the ball. His technique looks doubtful. Imagine a situation where India needs to play out 50 overs because top order has failed or say India need 100 from 120 balls. In either case, Yusuf does not seem to be a right choice. And mind that these are the situations you face as a team more often than say chasing 50 runs from 20 balls. And even then you feel that Yusuf is too much of a lottery to keep any belief in him. On the other hand, Raina is much solid in his technique (though he has few issues with short pitch balls). The main advantage with Raina is that he brings flexibility to the batting order. He can either play at number 3 – 4 and steady the innings of needed or he can even play down the order where he is a great finisher. He has played remarkably well at number 4, before Dhoni started pushing him down the order. In short he looks a more complete and reliable batting package than Yusuf. One of the main reasons India is unable to bat 50 overs is that Yusuf is getting out too cheaply. Sometimes, you need to steady the innings even in 45th over and Raina seem more capable of doing this. As far as off spinners are concerned, I do not have any reason to prefer Yusuf over Raina, and in any case, Yuvraj and Sehwag are there to fill in as a fifth bowler. I don’t have to mention his fielding. It just lifts the Indian spirits by some magnitude. So I do not see any reason why Raina should not play in Quarter Finals. I hope that selectors feel the same.

Sometimes aura stays for long time and same has happened with Australian cricket team. Their performance over last decade has just created mental block in minds of other teams. But many experts have agreed to this that the Australian team now looks much weaker than couple of years back; main reason being their unreliable batting. Though their bowling is still of the highest standards. This is good news for India, especially because Indian spinners are showing some form of late and Australians are weak players against spin. But said all this, one must not forget that Aussies are a great fighting team and they can bounce back from any stage. The best chance India has to beat Australia is to put up a big score (say 300) on board and put their batting under pressure. If Aussies score around 300 or even 275, it looks little difficult for India to chase it down, unless someone stays on the pitch for long.

Spare a thought for Sachin. He has scored two centuries this world cup and India has not won either of those games. This might be his last of the world cups and he wants to make it count this time. Indian players need to play around him when he stays on the pitch and support him. He looks determined and you might see him play some of the best innings in his life in coming knock out stage. (At least everyone hopes this)

To summarize, for me India has a great chance to win against Australia and we should be better off playing against Australia in Motera as against Srilanka in Colombo. So keep your Thursday free and I hope we get to see a cracker of match and hope that India wins this, Pakistan wins their tie and we meet in semis (what a match that would be!!!!!)

That’s it for now

Apoorva Javadekar
(From "far away from the world cup")
   

After Some Gap - Some Economics

Last few days were really busy as I have taken self responsibility of watching each and every match in the IPL - 3. So I am writing after some gap. In this post, let us talk some economics - some currency economics.

This is a great time to observe stock markets and currency markets. As far as Indian stock markets are concerned, they make lot of buzz. But for me, more important markets are currency. Partly because I like them very much and partly because they are really important from macro economy point of view in that they impact real variables like inflation, interest rates and export - import directly. Without getting in to further debate about which market is more important, we move ahead to the actual subject of the post as all agree that both the markets are sufficiently important enough to be studied in depth.

Over the period, I have learned at least 5 different methods of valuing the currency for any country against any other country. Of course, these methods are internally consistent. Using these methods, I was trying to forecast the exchange rate between rupee and American Dollar. The problem is that my forecast is entirely different than that of many analysts and experts. This has not only puzzled me but also motivated me to study the valuations more deeply and I shall do so in coming few weeks. But here I present one or two methods I use to forecast the exchange rate between these two currencies: rupee (Rs) and American Dollar ($).

The first is Interest Rate Parity theory used to predict the exchange rate. It is really simple. Consider 10 year Indian Government Bonds, which are not that risky. These are yielding around 7.80 % annually currently. On the other hand, US Treasury bond (US Govt Bonds) having same maturity of 10 years is yielding 3.60 % annually. So it is clear that (and what follows is based crucially on the assumption that Indian Government is in substantially sound financial situations, that they won't default) an American investor would like to invest money in Indian bonds and earn an extra 4.20 % annually. So what he can do is to take some $ say 100 $, convert them to Rs (at current rate which is 45 Rs per $ roughly) and invest 4500 Rs in government bonds for 10 years. At the end of 10 years he gets lump sum amount of 9535 Rs (this is including interest and note that this is not how bond market works, in the sense that he will actually get his interest on annual or semi annual basis and original face value at the end of 10 years). Now IRP says that the exchange rate must be such that it makes investment in India and US effectively equivalent for any investor. That is investor must earn same return whether he invest in India or USA. In US, this investor would have got 142 $ after 10 years if he would have had invested in US Bonds. So after 10 years 142 $ must be equivalent to 9535 Rs. This means the exchange rate must be 67 Rs per $. So according to this theory, rupee should depreciate against dollar in coming decade. What if this theory does not hold? Then anyone can borrow money at say 4 % (at marginally higher rate as compared to what government borrows money for from the market) and invest in Indian bonds and get something (3.80 % annually) more than what he borrowed, thereby making money out of nothing. Now such free opportunities are not tenable, because everyone will try to do it, thereby pushing up the interest rates in the USA substantially higher eroding such profitable opportunities.

Now analysts say, that Indian growth story implies that foreign investors will invest money in Indian economy and that means higher demand for rupee and appreciation against dollar. The logic is if this is the case, then anyone can exploit the kind of arbitrage opportunity presented above and make infinite amount of money. So either analysts are wrong or someone can make free money. If this is so, analysts can make free money too and the fact that they are not making money but projecting appreciation of rupee implies that they must be wrong. So their actions reveal something different than what their reports do. Is it really the case? This is puzzle number 1 in front of me.

Historically, IRP has been able to give more or less correct results at least over a longer period of time. I mean currency of country having substantially higher interest rates have generally depreciated against currency of the country having lower interest rates. In fact Rupee has depreciated against Dollar over last 10 years from 25 - 30 Rs Per $ to 45 Rs per $ (touching high of 52 Rs per $ in the interim). So, theory seems to work in spite of many unfulfilled (implicit) assumptions in the theory.

Given this dilemma, I am all set to take this study further and come up with some credible valuation of Rupee against Dollar. Till then Goodbye

Win That Really Mattered For India !

One has to congratulate Indian test squad for doing a fantastic job by winning second test against South Africa (SA) today. This win was important as India would have lost its number one position otherwise. The highlights of the match were centuries by four batsman of India including little master Tendulkar and captain himself MSD, Amla's unbelievable resistance in the second innings and Harbhajan's magical spell to which Morkel fell for to give India the badly needed victory. India has retained number one position and Tendulkar made it very obvious how important it was for the team to retain no. 1 position in a post match interview.

Now we can look forward for ODI series starting in couple of days from now on. The team has just been announced. Ashwin, Yusuf Patahn and Nayar have been included as Zaheer, Harbhajan and Yuvraj are not playing. One can question if Ashwin's inclusion is justified, especially when Ojha is bowling really well and could have replaced Harbhajan. Also, Mishra is in a nice form, so in all probabilities Mishra will play in team of eleven. So what Ashwin will do sitting in dressing room? Instead someone like Maish Pandey could have been given a chance. Coming next to the inclusion of Jadeja, I am always muffed about it. Does he add any real strength to Indian team? Sehwag and Yuvraj (of course he is not playing this series) do the job of fifth bowler. Jadeja can not even clear the ground, so he is hardly useful when it comes to finishing the innings or match. Also one more point to note is that Indian selection committee seems to have reserved Ishant for test and Nehra for ODI's, though there is no apparent reason for it, only except that Ishant will be less ugly in test than in ODI's. But I let these anomalies live strong in Indian team.

This series is important for Kohli. Kohli can actually take this opportunity and cement his place in the team, even after Yuvraj returns. So there is implicit competition between Jadeja and Kohli or even more subtly between Raina and Kohli. So a small triangular series will take place within Indian team. I am interested to see how this unfolds.


At the end of it, I wish all the best wishes to Indian team.

Opportunism at it's best

Events over last two weeks have given democratic principles some rest it needed. Shiv Sena has shown us the way how democracy should function. The way to express regret over anyone's opinion, the way to protest against anyone's view is to attack the cinema halls, cause social disturbance, and to claim victory. Not only that, Congress has shown us how to use government agencies to their own political advantage. I do not say that they should not have given police protection to the cinema halls, in fact it is their duty to do so, but it was quite evident that Congress was trying to built its own image and at the same time deface that of Shiv Sena. They put SRK's controversy to the perfect use. In turn SRK allowed Congress to do that because he is fortifying his image of a star and also giving credibility to newly born "Indian" identity oh his own. Media is as usual being pre - decided as to who should be the "Bakra". Bottomline is that political wisdom has sustained the acme of its opportunism!